As mentioned in the previous passage, “it is expected to have appropriate withdrawals and then increase after the gold price reaches the target of 2,000 US dollars”. However, there was a shooting after the gold hit a high of USD1,998 on 18 April. It was only USD2 short of the USD2,000 mentioned above, and another large candlestick existed on 19 April. On the one hand, everyone can understand it as the retreat of the rising wave, but it can also be judged that the previous upward breakthrough is false at that time. The following are the two views of long and short. 

The View of Long: 

As of April 22, the low point of the daily chart of gold has not been broken. The pattern of higher high and higher low is still maintained in the ascending channel. Thus, the current drop is just a reasonable pullback if assuming the view of long is true. Also, the bottom of USD1,915 - 1,890 cannot be broken. It must make a rebound in this area and create a higher high again. The trend is an important reason for gold to belong. The reason is that once it breaks below USD1,890, it means that there will be a lower low on the daily chart and it will be relatively conservative for the view of long. 

The View of Short: 

If the price falls below USD1,915 - 1,890, it will go out of the lower low, lower high pattern. It means that this decline is not just a callback, and the view is more inclined to short. Moreover, the fall of gold this round is expected to continue, and it will be relatively beneficial to rebound and short. If it rebounds to USD1,915 - $1,932 after making a lower low, there will be a large opportunity to trigger a new wave of decline at that time. The downside target of 1:1 would be around USD1,832. 

In conclusion, gold has returned to the congestion area after a false breakout above at present and the trend is not clear. In addition to the Fed's May meeting on interest rates approaching, there is resistance at USD1,970 above and support at USD1,915 below. Personally, I think it can be viewed as vibration first. Sell high and hold low in the short term. The USD1,915 - $1,890 area will continue to hold the long-short level in the later period. We still view it as long above this level and view as short below this level. Those investors who are relatively conservative can wait to get out of this range before entering the market. Let’s continue to follow up in the next article.

Hugo Leong Gold Analyst of Hantec Group